2006–2025 — quarterly external balance as % of GDP, showing persistent structural imbalances
Key observations
Germany's surplus is the most persistent in the G7 — above 7% of GDP for most years since 2016. This reflects a structural savings-investment imbalance (high corporate savings, compressed domestic consumption) and has been a recurring flashpoint in EU economic policy debates.
Japan runs a consistent surplus driven by investment income — Japanese companies and investors hold enormous overseas assets, generating large income flows even as the merchandise trade balance narrows.
The US runs the world's largest current account deficit in absolute terms — a structural feature of the dollar's reserve currency status that allows it to finance consumption via capital inflows. The deficit widened sharply in 2022–23 despite Biden-era domestic-production incentives.
The UK has run a persistent deficit since at least the 1980s, reflecting its services-dominant, low-savings economy. The deficit narrowed during COVID when imports collapsed, then re-widened.
Italy's sharp swing from surplus to deficit in 2022 was driven by the gas price crisis — Italy imports most of its energy and the bill surged. It has since partially recovered as gas prices fell.
Canada swung into rough balance in 2022 boosted by high oil prices (it is a major oil exporter). The surplus has since reversed as energy prices fell and import demand (partly from high immigration) rose.
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 2025 edition).
Current account balance = trade in goods and services + primary income + secondary income. % of nominal GDP. Quarterly data interpolated from annual IMF values. 2025 values are IMF projections. Positive = surplus; negative = deficit. Chart shows quarterly data; hover to see exact balances.