2006–2025 — quarterly output per person indexed to 100 in Q1 2016, revealing the impact of population changes
2016 Q1
Key observations
Canada's divergence is striking: headline GDP grew ~15% since 2016, but GDP per capita has barely moved since 2022 and is approaching its 2016 level. Record immigration (over 1 million net arrivals per year in 2023–24) expanded the population faster than output.
Japan looks much better on a per-capita basis than total GDP suggests. With a shrinking population, each unit of output is spread over fewer people — per capita rose around +7% despite near-flat total GDP.
Italy's per-capita recovery has been stronger than expected, boosted by population decline alongside modest GDP gains.
Germany shows similar weakness on both metrics — flat to slightly negative since 2022 — confirming its structural problems are real, not just a population artefact.
The UK and France both sit in the middle of the pack on a per-capita basis, though the UK's high post-Brexit immigration has modestly depressed its per-capita number vs. the headline.
The US continues to lead, with per-capita growth roughly tracking its strong headline figures — consistent with relatively moderate (for a developed economy) population growth.
Sources: OECD Quarterly National Accounts and IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 2025 edition), real GDP per capita at constant prices.
Index constructed with Q1 2016 = 100 for each country. Quarterly data from OECD QNA where available; IMF WEO used for projections. 2025 values are IMF projections. Use the controls above to add trendlines and analyze growth patterns before/after any quarter. Chart shows quarterly data; hover to see exact index values.